Bond Bulls Have it Wrong

The sheer duration and size of the consolidation Treasuries have been operating in, since last autumn when equities bottomed, almost assuredly means that when the inevitable directional break comes from said consolidation it will take many by surprise and oftentimes be far more violent in nature than most expect--Paul Tudor Jones has famous quotes about that very aspect of markets and it seems applicable now, more than ever, to Treasuries. 

As you know when TLT (ETF for Treasuries, updated below on the weekly chart) goes down, rates go up, since bond prices move inversely to rates. 

And gauging the sheer size and duration of the highlighted (in light blue) consolidation, it is noteworthy just how many vocal bond bulls are openly buying them up here and pride. 

I view this breakdown as the real move, and given the prior consolidation I view it as presaging a sizable break lower to shock people as rates spike higher on the back of the Fitch downgrade and a plethora of other inflationary forces at play while The Fed made several monetary blunder this year, all of which had the common theme of not fighting inflation tough enough despite the rate hikes.