09Aug11:28 amEST

I Wasn't Joking About the South Sea Bubble

I have been doing this for a long time now; Writing about markets in full public view on a daily basis for nearly fifteen years. 

So when I pen a piece like I did here on July 31st of this year, comparing the long-term parabolic charts of AAPL NVDA to the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law and the Mississippi Stock Bubble, and RCA in 1929, I do so full well knowing my reputation is at stake. 

Those same accounts on Twitter which come hot on the scene any given cycle and then burn out quickly too often remind me of all-sizzle-no-steak poker players who would playfully bust other players' chops when they went on a winning streak but then would become surly, bitter, and outright nasty during a losing steak. Eventually, they too would burn out and usually wind up leaving Las Vegas never to be seen or heard from again. 

But if I throw my weight behind a seemingly sensationalist type of view, it is for a highly specific reason. 

Here, the technicals, sentiment, macro, Fed, seasonality, all align properly for this exaggerated melt-up to finally come apart at the seams. 

This morning's action, after the last week or so of mixed signals, leads up to tomorrow's CPI print where I still expect inflation to resurface. Note oil, gasoline, and especially natty gas pushing higher, too--This is not consistent with a conquered inflationary regime giving way to disinflation--Especially with such weak China growth data. 

Instead, this is much more consistent with the dreaded stagflationary regime which is historically poor for equities. 

We're Moving to a Higher Pla... Summer Always Turns Into Hur...


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