Well, I Got Some Moves I Can Make Here

Bollinger Bands, the eponymous technical indicator named after its creator, John Bollinger, are "pinching" on the monthly chart for Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF, seen below. For most of this year, I have held SARK, a bear ETF for ARKK, with Members in the service. It is now one of my best performing positions in a year with tons of outliers for me. 

At issue is whether I should take partial or full profits in SARK, given that ARKK has totally retraced its funny-money pandemic era rally--The monthly chart illustrated as much with the light blue line. 

Still, Cathie's holdings remain bloated amid a sticky high rate environment, which is often the death knell for richly priced growth stocks with very little in the way of earnings and cash flow. 

In addition, when the Bollinger Bands are "pinched" (arrows) on a given timeframe it often signifies that a big, directional move is imminent. The easiest presumption to make, and many have, is that ARKK is bottoming just as rates are topping (See Barron's cover this weekend calling for a bottom in bonds and top in rates). 

But are we sure it is that easy, as a Barron's cover? 

I do not believe so.

There is typically more to a given story, and I will look at subtle signs and clues rather than accepting everything at face value. 

Hence, I remain short ARKK via long SARK, and think the big directional break lower for Cathie has barely started. 

In other words, ARKK is headed towards the teens.