07Dec1:24 pmEST

Things Are Happening in Brazil

We know China has displayed terrible price action of late, as seen on the FXI country ETF on the second daily chart, below. Indeed, YANG (a levered BEAR ETF) has been a Watchlist trade idea for Members in the service for a while. Obviously, China is oversold now. But the fact remains the weakness has been persistent, even if we see an oversold relief rally into New Year's Eve from here. 

With that said, it is interesting that within the emerging market complex we have Brazil noticeably outperforming.

Brazil is a commodity-rich country, with names like VALE being front and center. On the EWZ country ETF daily chart, first below, you can see Brazil basing tightly sideways after an impressive rally since October. I am watching for a move back over $34 to see if we get another rally there into year-end, with the likes of VALE in play on the long side. 

As for the market overall, the jobs report tomorrow, then the FOMC next Wednesday figure to be the two main macro events in focus before traders start to file out as Christmas approaches. I doubt Powell has the gumption for a surprise rate hike, but he will once again try to talk tough. 

Of course, he did just that last Friday and all the market did was price more rate cuts for next year; in effect laughing at him. Sign of the times, indeed. 

They're Handcuffed; We're No... The Great Mispricing


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