More Hope Than Evidence for Energy Bulls

Following-up on a series of blog posts about the energy sector, it still remains the case that energy bulls have far more hope for a major bottom than actual evidence of it. Beyond the nagging weakness in large integrated energy names like COP CVX XOM, even the big SLB in oil services, crude itself has fumbled many times when a potential inverse head and shoulders bottom could have been confirmed higher.

Back in late-2014, after the entire sector had crashed, against a backdrop of plenty of calls for either much higher or much lower oil prices I reckoned that the most likely scenario would be a long slog sideways

Some seven months later that still remains the case, albeit with risk firmly remaining lower in light of the bevy of declining 200-day moving averages across the complex in major charts of note.

After this morning's inventory, crude is down sharply and triggering many a stop in UWTI, for example. Just because the space is not at an ideal short entry point here does not mean it is a strong buy, either. As I will discuss for Market Chess Subscription Service members in my usual Midday Video, folding is a powerful, underrated weapon in finance.