Almond Joy's Got Nuts, This Fed Don't

To call Jay Powell another Arthur Burns would, at this point, be a hideous insult to Arthur Burns.

If you know your history, then you know that Burns raised rates to a high of 13.55% during the week of July 3rd, 1974.

Powell, in his eternal quest to placate doves (and likely the Administration) does not have the stomach for even half of that rate. 

As his presser gets underway in the final ninety minutes of today's session, keep an eye on precious metals and miners (silver is off to a great start) to see if they begin to squeeze Central Bankers for being too soft. 

Again, I am convinced rates will not be cut next year without an absolutely cataclysmic market event first. In fact, the pain trade in rates still may be higher yet.