Bears Should Come to Broad and Wall

“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” -Stock Trader's Almanac's founder, Yale Hirsch

Beyond representing one of those catchy one-liners folks in involved with markets love to say and hear, there is actual historical evidence that the new calendar year may spell trouble for bulls if the "Santa Rally" period turns out to be dud. 

Indeed, today officially marks the end of said Santa Rally period.

As it stands now are on track for a loser. Bulls will argue this is merely some well deserved profit-taking after a dashing 2023, complete with a grande finale into the holidays. Bears counter that the holiday dynamics of that move was merely a big squeeze and now reversion will set in with vigor. 

Growth stocks look to be leading lower again, while some rotation attempts into value and energy plays are of note. Natural gas has been so bad for so long that there is clear apathy towards this pop higher. And rates are on the move back towards 4% on the 10-Year. 

Overall, the conventional view here, especially after 2023, is that his dip will be bought and all the bear hope will be dashed again--It is completely understandable why that is expected. However, with complacency in the air (including the belief that "they" simply cannot let the market dip in an election year) I am still on the lookout for the downside to build this quarter.