No Jinx

We have another slow melt-up type of tape today in equities, as semiconductors slightly lag due to AVGO NVDA SMTC weakness. This type of action has become so commonplace that no-one even bats an eye anymore, including hardcore bears, when we see the opening thrust down immediately met with a V-shaped buying program and a subsequent grind the rest of the session. Without question, I can say in over two decades of trading that this market regime has been the most absurd for a variety of reasons. We do have the CPI next Wednesday. But right now that may as well be in 2025. 

From my perch the most interesting action continues to be in the two commodities we noted earlier in the week as being perennial heartbreakers to bulls: Natural gas and silver. Of course I am bullish on both right now, jinxes be darned. 

On the updated UNG ETF for natty, the key $16 looks to actually be holding this time. May 1st marked a false breakdown lower, and the commodity has been on a tear higher ever since. I expect a move into the low-$20s this summer, at least, as the technicals slowly improve. 

Regarding silver, that commodity is much further along (as well as gold, miners) technically than natty. With precious metals and miners galvanized today I see no reason why the uptrend from March and April cannot continue to new highs, especially with the macro tailwinds in play for that asset class.

Also note how underweight many are, still, in the metals and miners--Nowhere close to even a fraction of the AI/tech/Mag 7 names, for example.