Excuse Me, I Believe You Have My FEMA Stapler

Rates on the 10-Year Note are now back above 4%, as The Fed's jumbo rate cut on September 18th continues to look increasingly vulnerable to the bond market finally pushing back on "anything-goes" central banking policies over a period of decades. True, it has only been a few weeks, whereas several more months of this pushback from the bond market would be more concrete evidence of a revolt by the old vigilantes. 

However, this initial reaction seems to be gathering steam and cannot be a comfortable position for both Treasury longs and Jerome Powell. 

As for equities, small caps are leading lower while NVDA and the chips are outperforming. 

Still, as we noted last week on Microsoft, some of the Magnificent 7 names look much more like major tops than anything else.

Amazon, much like MSFT, is working on a weekly chart head and shoulders top, updated below. AMZN MSFT and GOOGL have been the relative laggards among the Mag7 of late, and the combined market cap of all three, many trillions over, commands our attention if these patterns prove to be multi-quarter tops indeed which trigger below soon enough.

Finally, Hurricane Milton is barreling towards Tampa and north-central Florida this week. GNRC, the generator play, is running. Keep an eye on ACM and FLR for engineering/rebuild plays, and ENR again for batteries.