Another Bounce Brings Out Bond Bulls...or Zebras?

The Super Bowl this Sunday may very well be between the Eagles and Chiefs, but right now the bond market seems like it is shaping up as a fight between the lions and the zebras. 

So, which one is which?

Are bond bulls correct that the recent bounce in Treasuries (with rates moving lower, since bond prices move inversely to rates) is the real-deal bottom? Or, instead, are bond bears correct that rates are still headed much higher for a variety of reasons (entrenched inflation, Fed behind the inflation curve again, stronger economy, pain trade, etc.), and thus Treasury prices have tons of room left to the downside? 

On the updated TLT (ETF for Treasury prices) weekly chart, below, we can see the recent bounce which has gotten bond bulls awfully jubilant about a major rotation back into bonds underway. 

However, I still see a bear flag amid a strong, established multi-year downtrend. The fact that sentiment remains hopeful for a bottom strikes me as additional evidence that we not only are far from an actual bottom, but that the risk of a washout lower (with rates spiking much higher) is still a legitimate scenario on the table. 

Prior instances of entrenched inflation (many quarters above the Fed's target inflation rate on an annual basis) have seen an eventual reckoning where both bond prices and stocks fall together as rates rise. The bond market seems to already have gotten the message last autumn when The Fed started to cut rates (thus bonds were assessing it as a mistake sending rates higher on the long end of the curve). despite the recent bounce in TLT. 

Also note how tightly correlations are running with REITs, housing names, and even small caps to a degree with rates on the long end. The recent dip in rates offered a reprieve for those sectors but the fact that the correlations remain sensitive seems like evidence per se of a bearish regime.