Trapped in the Same Hotel

After last Friday's late-day upside reversal, coupled with a Trump crypto pump tweet over the weekend, a familiar expectation was that today would annihilate short-sellers with yet another in a long line of face-ripping reversion rallies in light of the market's recent pullback. 

As we have been noting with Members, however, that expectation hinges on whether we remain in the same regime in terms of free and easy market liquidity aiding bulls and blunting bear attacks.

Instead, with today's aggressive move lower led by NVDA and the semis, it seems like bulls are now trapped in the same previous market regime even as the external variables are clearly changing (DOGE, a Fed on pause, GDP headed much lower etc..)

Indeed, gauging META (as well as the likes of AAPL AMZN NFLX PLTR), we have some extended market leaders on a long-term basis which still have quite a ways to drop even for a garden-variety correction to, say, the 200-day moving average (yellow line). 

Put another way, if this is not a change in market character, then I am not sure what is. Diminishing returns on crypto pumps and "face-rippers" from mildly oversold markets are a bright red flashing light.