A Thousand Blows Could Ruin the Art of the Deal

The "now-you-see-it, now-you-don't" game of tariffs being played by the Trump Administration reminds me an awful lot of The Fed's work on inflation in recent years: Talking tough at certain times but quickly retreating at the first sign of market dislocation. 

But here is the real risk: Markets eventually become punch-drunk from all of the swirling headlines, uncertainty, and indecision, reluctantly selling everything indiscriminately and creating its own mess. If The Fed and the White House want to keep fading the market's edges, they had better make sure they do not eventually lose the market's confidence. 

On the updated QQQ hourly chart, below, today's upside reversal amid tons of earlier whipsaws into the final hour still has not done much to move the needle of the a multi-week downtrend. You will note this is in spite of how many are cheering on each bounce and calling bottoms.

The non-farm payrolls report looms Friday morning, which is even more significant given that the FOMC is not for another two full weeks from today. 

Elsewhere, silver and natural gas continues to impressive in commodities, even as oil disappoints.