Nike: Just Extrapolate It

With Nike earnings are out of the way, the retail icon still looks like it is still scared of its own shadow. While NKE is certainly cheaper than it has been, it trades, even now, at a forward PE of 29 and is far from a dirt cheap, "blue light special." In other words, it is more likely to be a value trap than a value buy even after a multi-year downtrend since topping out in late-2021. 

But most of that is fairly common knowledge at this point. 

Hence, our focus is on the sheer amount of other retail and consumer names which suddenly look more and more like Nike on daily timeframes by the day.

This was a concept we harped on both here and with Members during Nike's descent for quarters on end, even if it did seem outright foolish at the time given that the broad market was printing new highs by the day and rendering Nike seemingly irrelevant all the way around. 

In fact, a few folks made a point to reach out to me to argue as much: That I should cease discussing Nike at all since it was obsolete and not relevant to the broad tape. 

But I maintained my view all along that NKE was a "sneak preview" of what was to come in retail. And now here we are with the stock moving sideways for most of April after a prior steep downtrend, seen on the updated daily chart, below. Indeed, XRT (the retail sector ETF) looks this chart, and so do the likes of CMG KSS LULU, among many others.

Thus, it stands to reason that NKE may have been the slow-burning "tell" all along, with other consumer names soon to follow.