It's a Marathon, Man

Most commodity miners are having an impressive session, with the XME (ETF for materials miners) surging 3.67% as I write this after recapturing its 200-day moving average after Memorial Day. Copper, coal, palladium, and platinum are mostly leading the charge. 

But let us not forget that gold was way ahead of this move, rallying sharply since late-2023 and a clear leader in the entire commodity complex. 

As a result, it begs the question about whether gold may be topping here. Indeed, I see a reasonable amount of skepticism from market players and pundits about whether gold can sustain higher from these levels.

On that note, there is an article today which should offer perspective insofar as where retail sentiment is on gold. Despite "Costco selling gold bars" garnering hype as a retail euphoric sign in recent years, the fact remains that folks are extremely excited about selling their physical gold into this rally rather than buying more or holding. 

via New York Post:

Gold was recently trading at $3,334 an ounce. Silver has surged to a 13-year high of $35 per ounce.

Accordingly, many customers on West 47th Street (the Diamond District) are looking to sell stuff that’s made of gold instead of buy it. As a result, retailers claim cash is in short supply because of bank credit limits. Most customers are paid with checks and wire transfers.

“This is a seller-heavy market,” Tseytlin told The Post. “We don’t give cash for anything over $2,500."

In other words, if this truly were a major top in gold, you would likely see people rushing to buy more gold at any price and in all forms. Here, they are selling with vigor, to the point where the gold dealers are short in cash to pay out all the sellers! 

And what is the blind spot for all of these folks selling into this gold rally the last few quarters? Of course, it would be if gold goes much higher from here and they are forced to chase back in to the metal. 

My long-term target for gold has conservatively been $5,000 an ounce. I personally think it goes to $10,000 in due time. In light of where retail sentiment is on gold currently, I reiterate those targets.