Weak Fed Leadership Marred by Dissents and Bessents

Today's FOMC decision to hold rates steady was met with two dissents among the voting members, marking the first time in more than thirty years we have seen a double dissent. Fed Chair Jay Powell's constant toeing the line seems to finally be wearing thin with most, as he would rather engage in legalese, "arguments for both sides," in lieu of addressing the fact that inflation remains above The Fed's prescribed 2% target for years now. 

That said, as Powell's presser dragged on even equities showed some wear and tear, soundly fading off session highs and current red as I write this in the final hour. The CME FedWatch odds of a September FOMC rate cut are now slightly below 50%, down from above 60% at the start of the trading day. 

As far as upcoming market moving events, we have META MSFT HOOD earnings tonight, PCE data tomorrow morning followed by AAPL AMZN tomorrow evening, then the jobs report on Friday morning. Each of these has the potential to outweigh the FOMC today, especially given the uncertainty lingering about the September meeting. 

Rates are higher on the day, gauging the 10-Year. However, to my eye the bigger issue this week has been oil. Crude's upside breakout, if it continues, would mark a three-year base breakout and catch many folks well offsides.

Furthermore, you can be sure that a late-summer breakout in both oil and gasoline prices (UGA ETF) at the pump will indeed have a chilling effect, shall we say, on the many calls for imminent rate cuts.