MarketChess

20Aug1:25 pmEST

I Respect the Strategy

News of Pepsi raising prices by 10% on their carbonated soft drinks in a few weeks hit the wires today. In addition, I saw a report that Monster Energy  (of which Coca Cola owns a piece) plans to raise prices on its U.S. energy drinks.  These price increases during an entrenched period of inflation should come as no surprise to anyone....

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19Aug3:08 pmEST

Rethinking Old Battle Lines

Today seems like the first day in forever that we are seeing coordinated heavy selling at the epicenter of the bubble in AI/growth/tech. High-flying names likes PLTR HOOD, chips like AMD MRVL, as well as monsters like NVDA are all being sold fairly aggressively into the final hour.  Naturally, one session does not a new downtrend make,...

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18Aug1:28 pmEST

Time to Be Open-Minded About Solar

After several years of price action which can only be described as putrid we now have some domestic solars like First Solar and Sunrun bearing an uncanny resemblance to the TAN sector ETF daily chart, seen below. In all cases we have price recently consolidating back above the 200-day moving average (yellow line) and then pushing higher...

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15Aug3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/15/25 {Video}

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14Aug3:22 pmEST

If You Don't Like the Temperature, Just Change the Thermometer

Even with one of the hottest PPI prints I can recall in years earlier this morning, the CME FedWatch odds for rate cuts at the next FOMC (and each subsequent one into early-2026) are still well over 90%. Now, The Fed may opt for a 25 bps cut in lieu of 50 bps given the hot print.  But unless Jerome Powell can summons the fortitude to shun both...

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13Aug3:29 pmEST

Prepare for the New Era of Tinkering

It is well documented that during times of entrenched inflation, like in the 1970s, we see folks "stretching out" every last ounce they can get from their household durables (also known as durable goods, items designed for long-term use within a household, typically lasting for three years or more).  In other words, spending the money to...

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12Aug3:15 pmEST

Sky High Nihilism

The major indices and leading stocks continue to operate in a kind of nihilistic world where any and all news items, macro reports, slight dips, bearish technical setups, etc., all point to higher equities, regardless. While it seems like a new paradigm has taken hold, one which has permanently changed markets forever, we know history implores...

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11Aug2:53 pmEST

Many Converts Await

With President Trump announcing he is casting his net even wider with candidates to become his nominee for next Fed Chair, it only creates an even larger incentive for said candidates to audition via a blatantly dovish view on rates. Put another way, the most dovish candidate has a better chance of winning Trump's nomination than a hawkish one,...

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08Aug3:06 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/08/25 {Video}

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07Aug2:28 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Bubble

Putting to one side the fade in large cap tech today, the perennial lagging sectors like regional banks (KRE ETF) and smaller cap biotech (XBI ETF, below on the daily chart) have not quite lived up to the many calls for a bonafide rotation into the back half of 2025 and beyond.  For a good while now we have been in both in a bifurcated market...

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