MarketChess

07Oct3:11 pmEST

Is That the End?

Without question this market has to rank as one of the all-time epic melt-ups in the Nasdaq, especially considering the economic backdrop and geopolitical tensions, not to mention monetary and fiscal blunders.  Still, the party has rolled on, with many of the main characters/CEOs in the AI story having been at the epicenter of the dot-com...

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06Oct3:13 pmEST

It's Still Lock and Roll to Me

You might have looked at the daily charts for both GLD (ETF for gold) and SMH (ETF for semiconductors) and arrived at the conclusion that they bear an uncanny resemblance to each other. After all, they both have enjoyed a steep multi-month uptrend and are gapping up aggressively today, the former on happenings in Japan and the latter off the...

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03Oct3:10 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/03/25 {Video}

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02Oct3:15 pmEST

The Sprouts Test

By now it is becoming increasingly ubiquitous to acknowledge that the economy is of the "K-shaped" variety, which basically means the rich get richer while just about everyone flounders, fighting hard to stay on top of bills, expensive, survival. We have profiled, both here and with Members, the destruction of prominent consumer names being...

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01Oct3:09 pmEST

Let the Winter Pass in October

"Sometimes it is best to lie low, to do nothing but let the winter pass." -Robert Greene Despite how lousy crude oil itself has been, particularly when it comes to sustaining upside moves, quite a few oil stocks and related names to the oil space (e.g. tankers, discussed with Members) are acting quite well. Exhibit A would be APA (Apache)...

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30Sep3:18 pmEST

Cereal Gamblers and Serial Gamblers

Prediction platform Kalshi (not to be confused with the "healthy" cereal Kashi) is sending shock waves throughout the online gambling world today, apparently having a bigger-than-expected chunk of market share in sports betting during the all-important football season. We know Kalshi does well in those states where it is, of course, legal, like...

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29Sep2:48 pmEST

If You Open That Door...

Compare and contrast a recent Yahoo Financial article versus the infamous Irving Fisher quote less than two weeks before the 1929 crash, respectively below.  You are welcome to call this doom and gloom posting if you like. But the fact remains that, objectively, these types of declarative statements about markets in such a cocksure way, about...

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26Sep3:30 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/26/25 {Video}

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25Sep2:06 pmEST

Dangerous Temptations

This market regime, centered around the Nasdaq names, will not end unless and until we see the recurring theme (likely in the hundreds by now since early-2023) of opening gaps down aggressively getting bought begins to effectively punish bulls. In order to do that we need to see a plethora of daily closes on the lows, or near them, and then...

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24Sep1:58 pmEST

Everyone Who Wanted to Sell Oil By Now, Already Has

One of the more instructive aspects about observing long-term timeframes is to gain clarity. Specifically, in the case of oil we have the ETF, on the first quarterly chart, below, sporting the "bull killer" pattern of a crash more than ten years ago followed by the last ten years of, overall, tedious sideways action. In other words, since the...

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