Cereal Gamblers and Serial Gamblers

Prediction platform Kalshi (not to be confused with the "healthy" cereal Kashi) is sending shock waves throughout the online gambling world today, apparently having a bigger-than-expected chunk of market share in sports betting during the all-important football season. We know Kalshi does well in those states where it is, of course, legal, like California and Texas, but also where sports betting has not been approved.

However, shares of DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel (FLUT) are gettin crushed today to the tune of 10-12% to the downside, with price breaching the 200-day moving average on both charts.

These types of moves would likely not occur unless the market was convinced a major repricing needed to happen, and that DKNG and FLUT market shares/betting volumes were vastly overstated especially looking out the rest of football season into early-2026. 

In addition, note MGM, below on its daily chart, also with an online gambling presence, weak off the Kalshi news today. I view this as an actionable short setup to play for a well-defined lateral support breakdown. 

Overall, we have a mixed, flattish tape headed into tonight's possible government shutdown. AMZN and META are notably weak, but the general euphoric nihilism, if there is such a thing, continues to supersede just about anything as far as the major indices go. That will last until bears properly crack most of the mega cap tech and hot money growth stocks.