'Til I Gain Control Again (RIP Raul Malo)

With the TLT ETF (for Treasuries on the long end of the curve, prices inverse to rates) flipping red today, we have the makings of a daily chart bear flag after a modest bounce on the back of the dovish Fed this week. With a rate cut plus the resumption of non-QE QE, plus a lame duck Fed Chair with no heart to fight inflation, whatsoever, bond bulls are running out of excuses for rates on the 10-Year Note to remain above 4%. Believe me when I tell you that I own my mistakes and bad calls, as easy as it would be to conveniently deflect in a variety of ways. 

Thus, as many bond bulls who pounded the table for much lower rates in 2025 on the 10-Year have simply acted aloof as though resilient rates on the 10-Year did not happen.

But they sure did. Much to the chagrin of the Treasury Secretary, to boot. 

In fact, during this morning's downdraft in rates on the 10-Year we saw 4.1% turn into support. Should that continues to hold as support after functioning as resistance before the FOMC we have the setup for much higher rates on the long end into 2026, an outcome which would serve as prima facie evidence of a dovish Fed and spend-happy White House/Congress losing control of the bond market, in my view. 

Another sign of losing control would be the metals thrusting higher yet. Platinum, silver, and the miners are leading the way today, all three of which are high beta entities--Perhaps the parabolic move into year-end will be in the metals and miners and not the AI/tech plays?

(Side note: If you have not heard of him or heard him, take a moment to listen to the recently-late, great Raul Malo).