With a Kiss

The Nasdaq is leading a broad market rally today on the back of a cheerleading performance by President Trump in last night's lengthy State of the Union Address. There is also hope that a deal will soon be struck with Iran to avert a major escalation. And even NVIDIA is rallying nicely in front of its big earnings report tonight. 

That said, when we gauge the QQQ ETF daily chart, first below, today's rally takes us up to what could easily prove a difficult area. Note the downsloping 50-day moving average (dark blue line), as price "kisses" it from the underside. Should there be any disappointments tonight from NVDA or CRM (monthly chart, second below), seeing rejection here would actually set up a nice short entry to play for downside breakout from a long and tedious sideways range.

First things first, though. And we know the NVDA CEO has an extensive history of talking up AI, his stock, the Nasdaq, etc.. The bar continues to be extremely high for Jensen Huang to the point where even a sound earnings beat may not be enough to quench the thirst of the upside momentum gods.  

As for Salesforce, they have been weak alongside the software sector in the IGV ETF at-large. You can see a major head and shoulders top has likely been confirmed, pending February's close (this Friday).

So, bulls will need a big stick save to negate it, likely in the form of a massive earnings gap higher this evening.