Paint It

The final session for both the month of March and the first quarter of trading looks to be one of a classic, mechanical short squeeze for some window dressing. Earlier this afternoon we had a stale headline (from weeks ago) that Iran is ready to end the war, but only if there are guarantees against future attacks. Equities staged a new intraday leg higher on that "news," as vague and likely unrealistic as it is, considering the underlying nature of what Iran seeks the U.S. and Israel to actually guarantee. 

But oil, for its part, is far from collapsing.

And that would seem to be the true litmus test as to whether we are truly on the cusp of any type of meaningful ceasefire or resolution to hostiles--One would think oil would be down 10% at least on a bonafide headline suggestion a deal. Of course, the issue of safe and numerous passage in the Strait of Hormuz is a major component of this equation, too. However, as long as oil stays relatively firm it is tough to get too excited about imminent peace. 

On the USO ETF daily chart, updated below, note the crude oil could not even hold below yesterday's lows on this big, market-moving news today, on the back of the Trump headline last evening that he may be open to leaving Iran without even trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Even as I write this, USO is pushing back higher and is not far from flipping green again), 

Overall, the old Marshall McLuhan saying, "the medium is the message," seems apropos for this tape, as it is being bumped around like a propeller plane in stormy weather on any old headline and any old hope. The fragility of market is the message, with sizable and abrupt swings taking place day and night for equities. 

As long as oil stays firm, though, today looks like nothing more than wishful thinking, end of quarter window painting/dressing. 

As an aside, Warren Buffett's interview with CNBC this morning sounded an awful lot like his comments back in the early months of 2008, declaring that stocks were not yet attractively cheap and implying they had much further to drop before becoming desirable to a value investor.