Worth Reiterating; It's Not Just Oil

Amidst one of, if not the, most vertical moves in the Nasdaq on a multi-week basis that I have ever seen or studied we also have widespread mocking of oil bulls. As a point in fact, oil bears and equity bulls have become interchangeable since, at least, the Iran War started as the White House has made a daily (and nightly) point to talk up stocks while talking down oil and each and every juncture. 

Putting to one side how quickly sentiment has flipped and become outspokenly bullish stocks and bearish oil, declaring the end of hostiles and, en parlance, a "nothing burger" as far as oil supply shocks go, my take is that most have forgotten about the chemicals/fertilizer angle which is highly likely to become a serious issue into the summer and beyond. Oil naturally takes the spotlight as far as commodities go. Well, it is either oil or gold/silver, depending on the market cycle. 

But ags, chemicals, and fertilizers almost never get their due.

However, I strongly suspect we have not heard the last of this supply shock issue, with chemical names like APD, below on the daily chart, barely flinching and still in a strong uptrend. 

I recognize it is neither sexy nor popular to have this view in this particular moment, given the exhilarating moves in the Nasdaq and the impotent nature of oil bulls since last week. Just as was the case int he 1970s, though, the deleterious effects of inflation and supply shocks tend to come just when it looks like the worst is behind us.