I Saw Many Signs

Even without a fraction of the legendary innovations we saw under Steve Jobs, you have to hand it to Tim Cook for presiding as CEO over Apple during the stock's run for the ages. The stock was so compelling at one point that even a quasi-Mennonite like Warren Buffett got involved with the stock and rode it aggressively for many years. The skeptic in me feels compelled to note that heavy and steady share buybacks were a big factor in the stock's run, coupled with the generally very easy monetary policies in place during Cook's tenure. But the stock bull run has been iconic, any way you slice that apple. 

Either way, as we head into AAPL earnings tonight, as the third largest publicly-traded firm in the world by market cap, Buffett and Berkshire have reduced their position by about 75%. Beyond that, Cook himself is set to step down from the firm just before Labor Day. In addition, as you can see on the bottom pane of the monthly chart, below, Apple is sporting multi-year bearish RSI (Relative Strength Index) divergence to price since the late-2024 highs, indicative of slowing upside momentum. 

All of these factors, in aggregate, are historically pretty solid contrarian bearish signals.

But, as we know, we are also trading through an epic market melt-up in the Nasdaq. Just today, with GOOGL leading the charge, we have dot-com oldies like NOK QCOM enjoying the ride, with INTC having had a dance or two in recent weeks. From my perch, there is not much to do in terms of the Nasdaq other than let the tomfoolery burn itself out. At some point, and it could be as soon as tonight with AAPL SNDK headlining the earnings, we will get some ugly reactions and there will not be a miraculous and instantaneous snapback rally. 

I saw the signs...is enough enough?