The Dickensian Aspect

While I could easily cherry-pick the shockingly bearish price action in the likes of WING (Wingstop) as reflecting the historically low consumer sentiment I am sure you have caught wind of by now, the truth of the matter is that there are countless downtrending stocks in the consumer/retail complex. Clearly, the contrast between dreadful consumer sentiment and a plethora of bearish consumer/retail charts reinforces the Dickensian aspect of this market and of this economy, given the daily melt-up higher in AI and the Nasdaq. 

However, what makes this divide even more pronounced is that Brinker (ticker symbol EAT, daily chart, below), which owns Chili's, was as hot as can be a few months ago. Specifically, Chili's "3 for Me" deal currently, $10.99, offers a beverage, appetizer (including bottomless chips & salsa), and an entree, and is available all day every day.

Over the winter, this 3 for Me deal was seen as marvelous business acumen, outmaneuvering even the fast food titans like MCD WEN YUM, etc. during a period when even fast food was pricing many consumers out of the market. 

But EAT has since suffered a sharp drawdown, with the bloom clearly off the rose. True, McDonalds has adjusted and sought to lure consumers back with value and some better prices, though I suspect the selloff in EAT is more likely due to genuine suffering from the 80% of consumers, at least, especially as gas prices surge and a casual dining experience is one of the easiest things to cut back on for the time being.

By the way, the market has also punished MCD in recent weeks, a long overdue fate for one of the most crowded multi-decade longs not in the tech space. 

Elsewhere, today is a relatively quiet day for commodities and commodity stocks, as bonds get a relief bounce. That sucking sound you see is capital feeling the daily pressure in this market to rotate out of anything non-AI and gamble is up in fear of...missing out, the other side of that Dickensian aspect.