No TACO, Just Old Fashioned Eye-talian Food

At this point I would be flat-out lying if I said that the constant headlines/rumors/trial balloons coming out of the White House and members of the media trying to curry favor with the administration were not grating on me. Just today, for example, in the pre-market we saw oil sell-off after an overnight rally and then equities rally on the back of a headline that the U.S. was going to lift oil sanctions on Iran. However, as the session got underway the White House apparently denied that headline, leading to (you guessed it) oil rallying and stocks, led by the semis, selling off. 

Again, this could all easily be a calculated trial ballon by the White House to gauge the market's reaction. But, then again, as I have noted many times before it is exceedingly difficult to win a war while simultaneously sweating every tick in markets--One can only imagine the blunders FDR and Truman may have committed if they had done so to this extent during WWII. 

So, no. Count me out of these various TACOs. I want out as soon as possible. I surmised markets would have wised up by now. And it may be in the early stages of doing so starting today, with the SMH ETF down more than 3% as I write this in front of NVDA earnings this Wednesday. 

But my speed is looking more to a spicy meat-a-ball in the form of the much-maligned natural gas, the epitome of a heart-breaker asset. 

Still, natty is extensively used in the much-ballyhooed data centers. And it follows that it should be much higher given how much is riding on said data centers sweeping the nation to implement AI at scale. Of course, an early summer heat wave does not hurt as far as natty goes. 

But with the gnarly bull traps (top arrows on UNG daily chart, below) over the last 6-8 months, on top of years of heart-break, no one wants a piece of this commodity and for good reason.

My take is that at least recent lows held as support. And that, overall, natty has been so bad that maybe, just maybe, it is good.