Enter Sandisk

Exit light
Enter night
Take my hand
We're off to never-never land, yeah

As much as the recent SpaceX (SPCX) IPO has been capturing headlines and momentum hype the reality is that Sandisk has clearly taken over this spring as the hottest name in the hottest sector of the hottest index during this melt-up.

In fact, you may have seen something making the rounds on social media yesterday that SNDK has the highest ever monthly RSI above 99, which is about as overbought as a chart can (seemingly) become based on tons of market history. Michael Burry was also lamenting that the speculative fervor has been "ridiculous" for a "very very long time," on his X handle, for what it is worth. 

Yes, conditions in the Nasdaq and AI-related plays continue to defy gravity and logic. And we have an Administration that, regardless of your political opinions, objectively sweats the stock market tick-for-tick more than any other White House in American history.

But we also have a new Fed Chair headed into his first FOMC tomorrow, with about one hundred years worth of data saying that markets love to put new Fed Chairs to the test fairly soon within the new regime. And if Trump thought getting the deal done with Iran was the icing on the cake for markets even if it makes him look weaker than he wants, he should have looked at history: After the embargo was lifted in the Yom Kippur War in 1974, stocks tanked and commodities rallied as the hangover of the war and supply disruptions was a reality to be faced--It was almost as though the adrenaline from the war enabled markets to fight to stay afloat, which clearly abated once a deal was struck. And that is the risk this time around, too. 

Overall, we can posit various theories and angles for oil, Iran, and the like. But as far as equities go, Sandisk's surreal momentum remains front and center for me as far as gauging potential buy exhaustion after the melt-up. Today's weakness is a start. But bears clearly need to start taking out levels below aggressively, starting with a close below the 20-day moving average for the first time since March.