New Beginnings

"New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings." -Laozi

Seasonality for the precious metals and miners continues to favor September. However, one can envision a scenario where the painful ending of these various multi-quarter corrections in the sector comes to a conclusion here in August before turning higher with sustainability next month. 

Either way, it is hard to argue against the idea that the precious complex has drifted into the background this spring and summer, given the intense daily focus and attention on oil, equities, and bonds, not to mention special situations like the Japanese Yen currency. 

Although we expected a correction in the precious sector back in February with Members, this has clearly dragged on for a good while now. However, nothing I have seen has pushed me off the multi-year bull view that the sector remains both cheap and woefully under-owned among retail and institutional investors. And, as we all know, austerity is not on the table anytime soon for the federal government and The Fed. 

Hence, I still expect significant upside in the precious complex for the rest of this decade and likely into the 2030s, too. 

On the PPLT daily chart, which is the Platinum Physical ETF, you can see a base bottom breaking higher. Again, I doubt it will be a straight-line move higher from here, especially in August. But it does smack of a new beginning after the painful multi-quarter correction likely ending. 

Elsewhere, and not unrelated to the metals' bull case, Scott Bessent talked up a Hormuz deal as being imminent, which in turn saw stocks spike and oil get crushed. I have my doubts about an imminent, bonafide deal with Iran for Hormuz that would not be a total disaster for Trump. But with AMD SPCX and SNDK all reporting the next two nights bulls had likely better get their top shelf earnings with no disappointments to keep the party going,