MarketChess

27Aug2:10 pmEST

What if Inflation is Bottoming, Not Topping?

Even though I have been out of my bond short since July I remain focused on the long-term inflationary dynamics still very much in play. The rate of inflation has slowed but that differs greatly than us experiencing deflation (Just go to the grocery store, pay your healthcare bill, various insurance costs, etc., for reference).  That said, what...

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26Aug11:57 amEST

Predators and Prey

The chart, below, has been making the rounds on social media of late. I saw Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), an economist, tweet it out previously.  As you can see, retail investors were galvanized by the selloff at the beginning of the month and, instead of feeling fear or panic, saw dollar signs instead and bought stocks hand over fist. While that...

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23Aug3:12 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/23/24 {Video}

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22Aug3:34 pmEST

I'm Sorry Ms. Jackson Hole, The Jobs Numbers Are Not for Real

The front-running of major events has been one of the hallmarks of this market for a while now, with inside information rumored to be circulating to the well-connected in a timely manner. The simple fact is that we will probably never know for sure whether that is the case. And, frankly, that is life on Wall Street and has been for over a...

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21Aug2:52 pmEST

The Longest Game

Even with a firm VIX and strong Yen today, stocks are a bit higher today as I write this on the back of both massive BLS job revisions lower plus dovish Fed Minutes, both of which would seem to give The Fed ample cover to cut rates in September.  However, those traders who either traded through or studied initial rate cuts, like 2007, know that...

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20Aug2:12 pmEST

Who Does Number Two Work For?

With a little over one week until NVIDIA reports earnings, it is completely understandable that the buildup to it will continue to be dramatic. After all, we are talking about the largest, most prominent stock at the epicenter of the Nasdaq/AI/semiconductor melt-ups all rolled into on ticker. We also have a high profile, black leather...

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19Aug11:41 amEST

Hammerin' the Top

The first monthly chart, below, is of the current Nasdaq-100 Index. The arrow points to the massive candlestick currently forming for the month of August, 2024. Even with two weeks left of trading before the candlestick is complete we know we will have a massive price range, gauging the sheer size of the candle. As we have been noting here and...

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16Aug2:42 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/16/24 {Video}

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15Aug12:26 pmEST

Jump Around

With a week to go before the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gets underway from August 22-24, markets are jumping higher off strong retail sales this morning.  Since the beginning of last week's sizable gap down we have seen all minor potential resistance areas prove futile, as bulls reverted to the old playbook of...

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14Aug2:26 pmEST

One's Eyes Can Be Deceived

"One's eyes can be deceived. We see what we believe, not the other way around." -V.M. Varga, Fargo, Season 3  ARKK is sporting an almost too-perfect short setup, seen below on the updated daily chart.  Despite, or perhaps because of, Cathie Wood's latest buying spree the technicals have not improved the overall broken charts on multiple...

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