The Pause That Wouldn't Refresh Anything

13Jun1:10 pmEST

Why Was I Born Handsome Instead of Rich?

Here it is: Daily melt-ups and a one-way tape amid bad news, good news, neutral news altogether. Sentiment assumes a bull market is here and new highs are inevitable, in the bag and a forgone conclusion. If you wanted to be a contrarian and look for a primo, type A short setup, this would be it. I, myself, certainly did not expect The Fed to...

12Jun3:10 pmEST

Soft or Hard Landing?

I know what equities are saying today and of late--clearly in favor of a soft landing, goldilocks scenarios where inflation recedes hard but the economy stays intact--but what of crude oil? Even with the OPEC+ seemingly bullish news in recent weeks to cut supply we have black gold selling off hard today, as seen on the USO ETF daily chart,...

11Jun11:36 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/11/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

09Jun11:54 amEST

Pause?! You're Talking Pause?

The consensus among economists on The Street headed into next week's FOMC is now that The Fed will pause its rate hiking regime and see how things shake out, hoping for the best of a "soft landing." Meanwhile, back in the real world, gasoline prices have gone virtually straight up since the beginning of May (see UGA daily chart, below, the ETF...

08Jun11:11 amEST

Bears Are Taking Their Summer Shots Here

It is still, for the most part, a week of consolidation so far on the major averages in front of what I expect to be a more action-packed week next week (CPI, FOMC, OpEx, etc.). In the meantime, do not overlook the following three Dow components' weakness, DIS NKE TRV, as all three, on their respective daily chart, below, are currently bear...

07Jun10:35 amEST

Wildfires and Rate Hikes, Eh?

Not only do we have the 2023 Central Canada wildfires making headlines this week, as the smoke and smog make their way down to even where I am in northern New Jersey by New York City, but we also have the Bank of Canada resuming rate hikes after a prior pause. In fact, rates in Canada just hit a 22-year high after that four month pause from...

06Jun12:36 pmEST

The Final Stage of Bifurcation

Small caps, China names, regional banks, biotechs, and especially retail stocks (the latter, below, on the XRT sector ETF daily chart) are all leading the action higher so far today amid flattish action on the senior indices. What those leading groups today have in common, of course, is that they have been glaring laggards for a good while now...

05Jun2:04 pmEST

An Apple Event a Day Keeps Reality Away

We have WWDC kicking off today, and shares of AAPL are in focus again and grabbing most of the headlines, even amid the OPEC cut and oil trying to get a little something going from beaten-down conditions. With a forward PE north of 27, especially considering the firm's sheer size, Apple is clearly not a value stock despite Mr. Buffett being...

04Jun9:40 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/04/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

02Jun10:26 amEST

The Pause That Wouldn't Refresh Anything

A strong jobs report for May is sending the Dow and a bunch of sectors which have been lagging higher with rates and the Dollar. Meanwhile, tech, biotech, ARKK, and chips are mostly red as bulls continue to look for a "pause" in the rate hikes from The Fed later this month at the June 14th FOMC. Bulls also argue, alternatively, that even if...