MarketChess

29Jul10:23 amEST

Whirlpool Out in the Cold Rhymes with Stagflation

The concept of history "rhyming" remains firmly intact even as the S&P and Nasdaq melt up every single (or perhaps because of it), insofar and the comparison to the early-1970s. Specifically, over fifty years ago we had the mighty NIFTY FIFTY market growth leaders melting up and eventually topping out, too, all the while stagflation (slowing...

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28Jul2:47 pmEST

Follow the North Water

"The North Water" refers to a fictional voyage of a whaling ship in the 1850s, which is the setting of Ian McGuire's novel and subsequent BBC/AMC miniseries of the same name. The "north water" specifically refers to the North Water Polynya, an area of open water in the Arctic where whales migrate, making it a crucial hunting ground for whalers...

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27Jul10:24 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/27/25 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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24Jul12:43 pmEST

Stand By Your Mine

Colorado-based Newmont Mining reports tonight, a name I have held for years in the VIP section of Market Chess Subscription Services, which is dedicated to long-term investing. Despite Newmont coming on strongly over the last eighteen months or so, when we look at the multi-decade chart, below, you can clearly see the stock trading, overall,...

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22Jul2:17 pmEST

It's Funny...Up to a Point

Shares of D.R. Horton and Pulte Homes are rallying sharply after earnings and leading a sizable rally in homebuilder stocks at-large today. As I write this the XHB ETF is up more than 5.25%, a monstrous move for a sector ETF, with DHI and PHM the leaders up 15% and 10%, respectively.  Indeed, it seems like it is all fun and games for housing...

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21Jul2:34 pmEST

Each Scoop Gets Smaller for Chipotle

Trading at a forward PE of almost 37, Chipotle is far from cheap even after a prolonged period of underperformance by its shares on an absolute basis and, of course, on a relative basis to the epic melt-up in tech/AI names. CMG is not alone, however, as the prominent consumer names like LULU NKE SBUX, even COST of late, have been...

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18Jul2:57 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/18/25 {Video}

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16Jul2:22 pmEST

He Wasn't Right in the Head

The odds of any Fed policy action in the FOMC later month are nearly zero. However, according to the CME FedWatch website , the odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC are currently just under 60%. But those odds were significant higher not too long ago, up above 90% at one point.  Clearly, rates on the long end of the curve pushing higher...

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15Jul3:06 pmEST

Dress it Up as Much as You Like

NVIDIA is still the main event for this market, with the $4 trillion market cap behemoth and current largest firm in the world surging again today on news they are selling some AI chips to China. On the quarterly NVDA chart, below, the comparisons to RCA in the 1920s and CSCO from the dot-com bubble still seem relevant. Note the bearish RSI...

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14Jul1:59 pmEST

It's a Dangerous Puzzle

There does not seem to be pretty much any fear in equities headed into tomorrow morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which reveals the inflation data as of June. I still expect inflation to turn back higher and surprise many who are looking for a Fed rate cut sooner than later. Mind you, The Fed can do whatever it wants, including...

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