MarketChess

01May1:45 pmEST

Don't Get High on Your Own Overhead Supply

Microsoft is surging more than 8% today, a sizable move for a name as large as it is in terms of market cap. For several quarters now we have profiled the relative and absolute weakness in MSFT, to the point where bulls ignored the name, essentially, during the winter months in favor of whatever was working at the time. However, at a certain...

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30Apr12:12 pmEST

Claws Versus Horns

Courtesy of the Modern Wealth Management website , the below chart is instructive insofar as putting in to perspective just what a bear market rally actually looks like and how long it can last.  I define an ongoing bear market as the major indices primarily operating below a declining 200-day moving average, with attempts to regain the...

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28Apr12:55 pmEST

Nike: Just Extrapolate It

With Nike earnings are out of the way, the retail icon still looks like it is still scared of its own shadow. While NKE is certainly cheaper than it has been, it trades, even now, at a forward PE of 29 and is far from a dirt cheap, "blue light special." In other words, it is more likely to be a value trap than a value buy even after a...

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25Apr3:34 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/25/25 {Video}

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24Apr3:34 pmEST

You Sure About That, Slick?

Both Chipotle and Tesla, respectively on their daily charts, below, are green after earnings this week, a point celebrated by bulls as illustrating that their prior multi-month downtrends had priced in all bad news for now.  However, the bounces are objectively not impressive thus far. Both CMG and TSLA remain in firm downtrends, with price...

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23Apr1:54 pmEST

It All Depends on Your Starting Point

"An old saying is that in a bull market, your time horizons grow longer and longer. In a bear market, they grow shorter and shorter." -Tom Gayner As much as we discuss various price levels and moving average reference points on the major indices, the fact remains that bulls view this abrupt rally the last two sessions as part an parcel of a...

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22Apr3:03 pmEST

I Scream, You Scream, We All Scream for Scoops

After yesterday's selloff we have a sharp snapback rally as stocks are, once again, resting their hopes on an imminent easing of trade war headlines, namely with China.  However, much seems to be lost in the plethora of swirling headlines, as seen by the one of the latest Charlie Gasparino tweets, below: As you can see, even someone like...

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21Apr11:07 amEST

Look at the Symmetry

There is plenty of noise out there right now so let us do our best to keep things simplified.  The VIX recently saw another spike like it did last summer and then a sharp giveback, just like it did last late-summer into autumn. It eventually went back into the teens by the holidays late-last year.  This time around, the precise issue for us is...

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17Apr9:29 amEST

Ten Years in the Books for Market Chess

If you have followed my work over the years then you know that I generally abstain from indulging in self-aggrandizing. The wins come, the losses come. That is life as a true speculator. I put myself out there every single day and let the chips fall where they may. So, there is no need for constant puffery--My work and personality are not for...

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16Apr10:12 amEST

Glass Half Empty Rally

Retail sales jumped this morning. China said overnight that they would be at least open to negotiations on the trade war and Taiwan.  And, yet, equities opened this morning with a sharp, Nasdaq-led gap down as NVIDIA leads lower by 6% on news of them facing a $5.5 billion charge as the U.S. restricts chip sales to China. In other words, despite...

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