MarketChess

26Dec1:27 pmEST

If I Told You This, Would You Believe Me?

September 16th, 2024.  That is the last time that shares of Reddit, seen below on the updated daily chart, tested their 20-day simple moving average (orange line).  The 20-day moving average is a short-term reference point for swing readers. As an example, NVIDIA has not tested its 200-day moving average since January 2023, but the 200-day is...

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23Dec3:38 pmEST

Don't Forget About the Comstock Loads

Slow session today to kick off the next two weeks of abbreviated holiday trading. Wirth Christmas Day and New Year's Day both falling on each of the next two Wednesdays, right smack in the middle of the week, it would not surprise me to see most market players call it a year.  For those hanging around, natural gas has quietly been improving,...

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20Dec3:28 pmEST

Afternoon Update 12/20/24 {Video}

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19Dec1:15 pmEST

The Immortal Bull Market

No, I am not referring to equities as the "immortal bull market." Instead, I am referring to the forty-plus year bull run in Treasuries, with rates falling since the early-1980s up until the pandemic. As you might imagine, that length of the bull run in the bond market lulled several generations of investors to sleep, even seasoned market...

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18Dec3:42 pmEST

The Great Repricing

Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...

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17Dec2:41 pmEST

Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP

Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback.  However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...

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16Dec12:53 pmEST

Because it is All So Hysterical

In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...

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13Dec3:22 pmEST

Afternoon Update 12/13/24 {Video}

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12Dec3:10 pmEST

How Could it Be OK if It's Askew?

I saw on X that @Barchart posted how low the "MOVE" Index has been sinking, which is basically the VIX of the bond market, illustrated below.  It would seem there is much ado about nothing, according to the MOVE Index, despite rates pushing higher as Treasuries selloff after both yesterday's inline CPI print, a strong 10-Year auction, and then...

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11Dec10:13 amEST

Ready to Go At a Moment's Notice

Natural gas is red-hot this morning, out in front of the commodity complex as the CPI print confirmed what we basically knew anyway: Inflation is reaccelerating into Fed rate cuts. Further, while it is certainly true that uranium and nuclear reactor plays are enticing on the long side, the more imminent, realistic play for AI energy is natural...

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