MarketChess

31Jul3:30 pmEST

It May Not Be the Right Cut

Earlier this month I sold out of a long-term short in Treasuries (long TBT, an ETF ultra-short TLT, seen below on the weekly chart; long TBT is basically a bet on higher rates and lower Treasury prices). As I noted with Members, my long-term view is still that the bond market is in serious trouble, but I saw a better entry price coming later...

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30Jul12:21 pmEST

Fighting Your Greatest Opponent

"Your biggest opponent isn't the other guy. It's human nature." - Bob Knight There is a tendency from traders, most likely due to human nature, during earnings season to more or less temporarily forget about a given name after they have reported, especially if there is no dramatic reaction by the stock. However, doing so may come at the...

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29Jul12:30 pmEST

Those Chips Suddenly Aren't Paula Deen Sweet Anymore

As we embark on one of the busiest midsummer weeks you will ever see in markets, between the biggest firms reporting earnings alongside about 40% of the S&P 500 Index's components, plus the FOMC and non-farm payrolls in the heat of an election year and heightened geopolitical tensions, you may have noticed the increasing intraday violence of...

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26Jul2:36 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/26/24 {Video}

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25Jul12:04 pmEST

This is What a High(er) VIX Means

While certainly not at historically elevated extremes, the VIX (or Volatility Index) is higher than the sleepwalking levels it spent most of this spring and summer, heretofore. This morning, NVDA, semis, and most tech at-large opened sizably lower before reversing back to green/flat as I write this.  Bulls are cheering this move as a kind of...

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24Jul12:25 pmEST

We've Got Evidence Now, Pal

A higher low in the VIX; A lower high by the semiconductors (below on the updated daily chart for the SOX Index) as the 50-day moving average for that sector has now been clearly lost.  These are pieces of strong evidence that some type of regime change is underway in equities, as dip-buyers previously feasted with easy on any and all...

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23Jul1:26 pmEST

Misdirection to Throw You Off the Trail

After yesterday's relief bounce, the market is broadly being whipped around today with small caps outperforming. On the downside, however, semiconductors are among the worst performers on the back of an NXPI earnings selloff. Transports are also being sold as UPS is getting pounded after its own earnings.  However, I believe the takeaway from...

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22Jul11:44 amEST

New Regimes All the Way Around

If you accept the timeless Wall Street axiom that, "Markets hate uncertainty," then there can be little doubt an upcoming general election without the incumbent on the ballot will spark uncertainty, especially with President Biden dropping out of the race this late in the process. In addition, we have rising conflicts in the Middle East,...

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19Jul2:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/19/24 {Video}

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18Jul11:43 amEST

A Bad Morning in Boca Raton

This morning was the first time in what seems like years (and perhaps is) that the Nasdaq Composite faded an initial heavy post-selloff rally hard.  In a corrective or bearish tape over the decades of modern market history we very often see opening gaps higher faded. This is a function of underwater longs who were levered needing to unwind...

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