MarketChess

12May2:56 pmEST

Your Way; It Won't Work

Kevin Warsh looks to be well on his way through the Senate process of securing the next Fed Chair position. To be sure, Warsh is likely dealing with tons of back-channel pressure from the White House to cut rates, much more than 25 bps, and to cut much sooner than later.  However, we have noted numerous times of late with Members, markets have...

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11May3:21 pmEST

Bastard From a Commodity Basket

Without question natural gas is the bastard child  in the commodity world, an endless heart-breaker or, as some say, a widow maker, due to its constant fake-outs, rollovers, and general disappointment for years on end.  Case in point: Just today, with oil and gasoline moving higher off the weekend news of rejected peace offerings, silver...

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08May3:03 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/08/26 {Video}

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07May3:32 pmEST

Much Hype, But No Hyperbole Here

The reversal down in bonds (and thus reversal up in rates) earlier in today's session was one of the main things we noted with Members this morning. Simply put, we wanted to see if equities would finally buckle a bit and respond to stubborn oil and gasoline as well as Treasuries struggling to hold much of a rally.  As we wind down today's...

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06May12:58 pmEST

A Bull Market to Die For

The melt-up in the semis (AMD a big reason why today) and QQQ is becoming more extreme by the day, leaving countless open gaps below as the AI-related charts go vertical and leave virtually everything other stock and sector in the dust (for the time being). Putting to one side the constant hopeful headlines on Iran for a peace deal, beyond the...

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05May2:37 pmEST

Getting Acclimated with Crack

In the energy complex, a "crack spread" involves the price difference between crude oil and its refined products, such as jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel. Generally speaking, higher crack spreads directly benefit the refinery firms as their profit margins surge and they are capturing more revenue per barrel processed. Of course, they tend to...

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04May3:24 pmEST

The Pond is Shrinking

By now you have likely heard of the chronic case of bad breadth that the S&P 500 is experiencing, meaning poor overall participation from a proliferation of stocks and sectors. That said, bulls are all too eager to counter that a shrinking pond is irrelevant these days, as the likes of GOOGL, MU, and SNDK (among others) go up every single...

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01May3:20 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/01/26 {Video}

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30Apr3:23 pmEST

I Saw Many Signs

Even without a fraction of the legendary innovations we saw under Steve Jobs, you have to hand it to Tim Cook for presiding as CEO over Apple during the stock's run for the ages. The stock was so compelling at one point that even a quasi-Mennonite like Warren Buffett got involved with the stock and rode it aggressively for many years. The...

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29Apr3:49 pmEST

Wars Actually End

"You can't even call this a war. Wars end." -The Wire As we turn the page on Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed Chair, it is hard to believe (although I should know better at this point) that he could actually say with a straight face this afternoon that there is no case for a meaningfully restrictive monetary policy. Seeing as inflation has...

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