MarketChess

15Feb3:07 pmEST

Keeping it Actionable When the Action Goes Off the Rails

One would think rates would be knifing back under 4.2% today, given the continuing speculative mania in SMCI, for example, as the AI bubble rolls on. However, that is not the case: Rates are barely down.  Furthermore, Jeff Bezos is unloading billions of AMZN and now Warren Buffett is selling some of his AAPL (mind you, Buffett prefers to hold...

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14Feb12:20 pmEST

Too Many Kisses on Valentine's Day

Even though Apple has been relatively quiet of late, especially compared to the AI/chips as well as other "Magnificent 7" stocks, there is no getting around the fact that the firm still has a market cap of $2.82 trillion, as we speak.  Hence, the sheer size and weightings in the various indices and ETFs render AAPL incredibly relevant at all...

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13Feb12:33 pmEST

We're Just Sweeping Dirty Dishes Under the Rug

It almost seems as though the market, and indeed many pundits, are still reeling from hot CPI print this morning. In other words, I seriously doubt we have seen the full brunt of the fallout from the notion that inflation is back on the upswing. Hence, imminent rate cuts are almost assuredly off the table, even for this Fed. And that is...

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12Feb12:40 pmEST

Smooth Seas Forever

“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor." -Franklin D. Roosevelt  In front of tomorrow morning's Consumer Price Index print we have stocks higher. In particular, the rotation attempt down to small caps is taking hold. Even the oil stocks are finally waking up a bit, mostly the oil services names in the OIH ETF (look at RIG) and the...

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11Feb9:40 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/11/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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09Feb2:45 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/09/24 {Video}

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08Feb10:27 amEST

Are Big Round Numbers Too Beaucoup, Even for This Market?

Although it seems far more like a bunch of baloney than a brilliant observation, the truth is that Wall Street history is littered with major, multi-year (even multi-decade) showdowns at big, round numbers.  We currently have the monster, NVDA, dueling with $700, and the S&P 500 Index battling the 5,000 level, both of which are at all-time...

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07Feb1:34 pmEST

I Think I'll Just Stay Here and Drink

Long-term extended and expensive names, like COST ORLY and Visa, are pushing higher yet today as some of the heavier-weighted names in the Nasdaq, like META, also try to pick up the slack and drown out weakness in the small caps and biotechs again.  The same dynamic, of an extremely narrow but historically resilient bull market melt-up, that we...

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06Feb12:22 pmEST

Did AI Solve the Need to Ship Goods Around the World?

Nice breakout attempts from some nice shipping charts, below, which we have been noting with Members for a while now: GNK and SB.  Meanwhile. NVDA is finally dipping and perhaps printing a bearish engulfing daily reversal candle, pending the close today.  Still, we have seen this movie too many times before to not think that dip-buyers/0DTE...

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05Feb11:26 amEST

We're Not Back Up Until This Happens

Of all the names composing the SMH, ETF for the semiconductors, the only names up more than 3% as I write this are ON and, of course, NVDA.  Most of the rest of the ETF names are either red or up less than 1%.  This is happening as the broad market sells off today, with the small caps and Dow clearly leading lower while the S&P and Nasdaq are...

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