Big Tree Fall Hard

04Feb3:26 pmEST

The Path of Least Credulity

The rotation into and sharp rallies in the global materials/energy complex, away from extended long-term leaders like FANG, HD, SBUX, even AWK, today needs to be monitored closely in the coming weeks for sustainability. In front of the jobs number tomorrow morning it is also tough to draw too many conclusions, especially regarding precious...

04Feb12:33 pmEST

Surviving the Winter

After several opportunities for bears, the Euro has failed to break lower in an ongoing bear market. Instead, we have seen a ferocious short squeeze higher, perhaps indicating the "pain trade" in what had been a crowded thesis. For my money, the Euro never triggered a fresh short entry, rendering me an interested spectator. To update the big...

04Feb11:00 amEST

Going with the Flow

While it may very well seem like there is no rhyme or reason to this price action of late, buyers sure did not waver from what could have been a very bloody morning off a downside reversal in the futures overnight. Instead of a bloodbath, however, we are now seeing plenty of squeezes to upside, especially in beaten-down junk like CREE FIT MBLY...

03Feb5:03 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 02/03/16 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services . In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

03Feb3:31 pmEST

A Rally from Russia with Crazy, Psychotic Love

A sharp upside reversal this afternoon was led by energy and especially Russia in the emerging markets in what seems like a helter-skelter tape full of wild mood swings. The RSX is the Russia country ETF, with the RUSL being the triple-long version of that ETF. Russia, China, Brazil, as well as the XLE and USO are now back over their...

03Feb12:39 pmEST

The Bridge to Cross This Afternoon

As quaint as it may seem, the $100 level on the IWM (ETF for the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index) is likely shaping up as the bridge to cross for bulls to make any meaningful progress beyond the bounce off this morning's lows. The $100 level has acted as support in what has been a bit of a rugby scrum in recent weeks as bulls and bears...

03Feb10:42 amEST

Japan Losing the Battle of Midway Versus Its Own Currency

Despite going to the extreme measure of negative interest rates, the Bank of Japan has not been able to keep the Japanese Yen down for very long. As we have discussed previously, the Yen is often seen as an inversely-correlated currency to thriving global risk appetite, which means when the Yen rises it is often seen in conjunction with falling...

02Feb5:08 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 02/02/16 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services . In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

02Feb2:42 pmEST

Stop Being a Nosy Fellow!

In the first few weeks of 2016 we looked at the water utility, AWK, in a bullish light in this blog post , due to overall chart structure and, of course, the suddenly chic theme of water. Since then, the stock has enjoyed a nice rally, defying the market weakness along with other defensive types of names. Now, however, it is widely-known...

02Feb11:56 amEST

Big Tree Fall Hard

With financials weak once again, and potential major red flags like DB unable to find a bid below its 2008 crash lows, LendingTree remains a viable short idea. On the updated daily chart, below, big TREE has had several weeks to grind back up and alleviate some short-term oversold conditions. Earnings are not for another few weeks, and if TREE...