MarketChess

20May11:30 amEST

The Coast May Never Be Clear

Notoriously full of head-fakes and heartbreaks, commodities can be the most ruthless asset class when it comes to trying to time breakouts. For long periods of time commodities essentially lay dormant. But when they do finally wake up, the momentum can be beyond the comprehension of even the most steadfast of bulls.  All we can do is...

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17May12:28 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/17/24 {Video}

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16May2:23 pmEST

Once Again, No Jinx

Another quietly strong day for natural gas, this time after the weekly inventory report, to boot. Even though UNG is well off session highs it is still soundly green as I write this and continues to have a great May.  RRC, below on the daily, is one long idea related to natty with a sound chart.  As for the overall tape, a mild fade is setting...

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15May1:06 pmEST

Making Sense of Irrationality

Stocks continue to celebrate virtually any and all news, be it hot prints, cool prints, strong or soft economic data. History tells us we are seeing all of the classic signs of a major market top, from the meme stock squeezes to sentiment, positioning, valuation of a narrow group of leaders, to divergences for years in small caps, transports,...

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14May10:53 amEST

Where's My Cheeseballs?

Right now, very few people want to hear that MasterCard and Visa are displaying relative weakness this morning, or that silver and the precious miners are acting well, alongside copper.  No, this market right now conjures up twenty-year old memories of the (original, pre-"Situation") Jersey Shore MTV show starring Tommy Cheeseballs, stomping...

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13May11:46 amEST

Stocks Keep Living the Riviera Life

The old timers would say that another round of "meme stonks" like AMC and especially GME blasting off today is a surefire sign of a market top. Of course, many would (and are) counter that we are in a new market, a new world of stocks only going up and any and all dips rendered amazing buying opportunities, where "old timers" are obsolete...

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10May2:52 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/10/24 {Video}

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09May1:50 pmEST

No Jinx

We have another slow melt-up type of tape today in equities, as semiconductors slightly lag due to AVGO NVDA SMTC weakness. This type of action has become so commonplace that no-one even bats an eye anymore, including hardcore bears, when we see the opening thrust down immediately met with a V-shaped buying program and a subsequent grind the...

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08May12:28 pmEST

You Cannot Anime Your Way to Prosperity

A diving Japanese Yen currency in April began to worry the developed economy central banks and governments to the point where we saw a clear Japanese intervention into their own currency.  The level which seemed to cause the most alarm was $160 on the Dollar/Yen cross, seen on the monthly chart, below. Given that the Yen is the denominator in...

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07May1:08 pmEST

Chasing the Mystery

Much debate is currently swirling about whether we are, in fact, seeing another wave higher of inflation or, instead, inflation is either flat-lining or even receding. There seem to be intelligent, well-studied folks on both sides of that debate. Housing and rents figure to be the tiebreaker. And as we know, real estate can be inherently local...

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