MarketChess

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18Dec12:26 pmEST

The First Big Test for the Superhero Bounce

The SPY daily chart, below, shows price checking back up to the 20-day moving average (orange line). I view this circumstance as the first big test on the bounce-back rally. If we are to see a rollover, then this is where sellers would likely present themselves to avoid another V-shape rally to fresh highs. Elsewhere, GRPN is impressive today,...

18Dec11:03 amEST

Longs for Rentals Into Christmas

Beaten-down issues, such as FSLR LVS WYNN, are enjoying snapback rallies even if they are still within the context of broken charts. Overall, equities are squeezing eager bears from two sessions ago, despite glaring weakness again in the likes of AMZN GPRO, and crude oil. Playing longs like LVS here can best be described as a "rental" into...

18Dec12:19 amEST

Late Night Strategy for Thursday

One thing is for sure with this market--You had better be precise with your stock and industry selection. As an example, within the consumer discretionary space we have the major casinos essentially crashing, in LVS MGM WYNN, while the major cruise lines look as bullish as any group of charts around, CCL (first chart, below) NCLH RCL. As I...

17Dec4:58 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 12/17/14 {Video}

The following video contains coverage of relevant broad market issues (for equities) in addition to plenty of actionable trading ideas across other asset classes. Feel free to pick and choose which ideas and parts of the analysis fit your style. Always properly manage your downside portfolio risk for any trades taken. Enjoy tonight's...

17Dec3:48 pmEST

Off to Battle Again; Chess Moves

Into the bell, I went long TBT (the ultra-short Treasuries ETF) at $46.46, with a protective stop-loss below $45. This position represents 4% of my trading portfolio capital. More on this trade and equities in my video market recap after the bell. See you there.

17Dec3:07 pmEST

Guarding the Considerable Time Fortress

Markets are initially surging higher off the Fed's latest statement, as shorts into the meeting are getting squeezed quite violently. If we do see some a reprieve from the selling into Christmas, I still think Blue Nile can outperform, seen bouncing back nicely on the daily chart, below. $37 remains the trigger above, but the low float/short...

17Dec2:03 pmEST

Perspective Before the Ride Begins

In front of the FOMC announcement, member forecasts, and Chair Yellen's presser, note the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index, seen the IWM ETF hourly chart below, are hovering right near the breakdown level (yellow arrows) of that diamond topping pattern (light blue lines) that we had previously observed. It is likely no coincidence that the...

17Dec12:51 pmEST

The Last Stand for Bond Bears

2014 has been a body bag type of year for bond bears pushing the envelope. I, myself, have been looking for a reason to make some big bets on the short side in the bond market, but ultimately stuck to my discipline of "no trigger, no trade" and took a pass on making the bold top-call. Still, I took some shots here and there, with a nice win...

17Dec12:16 pmEST

A Setup at the Cuban Cigar Store

With this political news out today, any stock with exposure (or at least apparent exposure) to Cuba is obviously worth researching. CUBA would be one such ticker, an investment fund up over 42% today. It is tough to chase that type of action for a swing trade, especially in the face of news-driven moves. But for a day-trade you typically want...

17Dec11:15 amEST

Cutting a Gourmet Loss; Chess Moves

No dice on the coffee long starter position I took the other day, with the JO ETN failing to hold recent lows. As a result, I closed out my position just above $31.30 from the $32.77 entry I posted the other day for a loss. I am honoring my stop-loss as the thesis for the trade is being proven wrong by the market with price losing Monday's...

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