MarketChess

29May12:28 pmEST

An Oldie But Goodie

Rates are on the move higher again today with the 10-Year Note back over 4.6% as I write this. Without question the many folks who boldly proclaimed rates had topped for the year earlier this month will need to at least pause and reflect on that view, as we noted yesterday that the TNX (Index for Rates on the 10-Year) weekly chart has been...

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28May10:15 amEST

Oil Still Could Crack the Case

As a fiery debate rages across many asset classes regarding whether or not inflation is reaccelerating, crude oil may be the key piece of the puzzle which determines the outcome this summer.  On the updated USO ETF daily chart, below, you can see the technical crossroads crude is faced with--A full month now of flopping and chopping around...

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23May12:56 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/23/24 {Video}

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22May2:18 pmEST

Learn Your LULU Lesson

When shares of Lululemon hit new all-time highs last December 2023 it was quite fashionable for bulls to boast about how LULU was just like COST GOOGL MSFT NVDA and other nonstop, crowded winners who simply could not lose in this market.  Since then, as you can see on the monthly chart for LULU, first below, the stock has tumbled violently...

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21May10:40 amEST

Silver's Range Expansion

"If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try to fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion." -Paul Tudor Jones The monthly chart for the silver...

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20May11:30 amEST

The Coast May Never Be Clear

Notoriously full of head-fakes and heartbreaks, commodities can be the most ruthless asset class when it comes to trying to time breakouts. For long periods of time commodities essentially lay dormant. But when they do finally wake up, the momentum can be beyond the comprehension of even the most steadfast of bulls.  All we can do is...

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17May12:28 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/17/24 {Video}

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16May2:23 pmEST

Once Again, No Jinx

Another quietly strong day for natural gas, this time after the weekly inventory report, to boot. Even though UNG is well off session highs it is still soundly green as I write this and continues to have a great May.  RRC, below on the daily, is one long idea related to natty with a sound chart.  As for the overall tape, a mild fade is setting...

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15May1:06 pmEST

Making Sense of Irrationality

Stocks continue to celebrate virtually any and all news, be it hot prints, cool prints, strong or soft economic data. History tells us we are seeing all of the classic signs of a major market top, from the meme stock squeezes to sentiment, positioning, valuation of a narrow group of leaders, to divergences for years in small caps, transports,...

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14May10:53 amEST

Where's My Cheeseballs?

Right now, very few people want to hear that MasterCard and Visa are displaying relative weakness this morning, or that silver and the precious miners are acting well, alongside copper.  No, this market right now conjures up twenty-year old memories of the (original, pre-"Situation") Jersey Shore MTV show starring Tommy Cheeseballs, stomping...

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