MarketChess

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24Feb1:30 pmEST

The Extinct Shooting Star

In light of the nature of this particular bull market and all of its accompanied false breakdown and "sucker tops," it almost seems like a sacrilegious act to even mention the classic topping signs.  But I am going to do it anyway, not as some form of stubbornness but rather to avoid the pitfalls of late-stage bull markets which inevitably...

24Feb12:27 pmEST

Beaming Up

Into the midday portion of the trading session, I am watching the $122.50 area on the small cap ETF, IWM. We saw a breakout above it, with Chair Yellen beaming it up this morning. However, just as soon as it broke out above the highlighted resistance trendline on the 30-minute chart, below, it came back down to "squat" at the top range.  Into...

24Feb11:10 amEST

A Monster Coming Out of the Gap

Natural gas, specifically UGAZ (the triple-long ETF derived from UNG, the straight-up ETF) has, fortunately, been a monster for me each of the past two weeks.  At issue is whether three times will be a charm to conclude the month of February.  In a blog post yesterday, we looked at the shorter-term 30-minute timeframe, updated below, for UNG. ...

24Feb10:31 amEST

Dodging Incoming Missiles

We have some interesting spreads to note this morning, as Chair Yellen reassures the markets that no Fed rate hike is imminent. It is important to be aware of these moving parts of the market to dodge any potential bullets, should the divergences get resolved quickly.  In particular, TSLA is selling off even as oil rallies. While the two have...

23Feb4:24 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 02/23/15 {Video}

The following video contains coverage of relevant broad market issues (for equities) in addition to plenty of actionable trading ideas across other asset classes. Feel free to pick and choose which ideas and parts of the analysis fit your style. Always properly manage your downside portfolio risk for any trades taken. Enjoy tonight's video, and...

23Feb3:12 pmEST

Back in an Energy Short; Chess Moves

After a quick overnight win last week in ERY, the triple-bearish ETF for energy stocks, I just went long ERY again at $19.02 with a protective stop-loss below $18. This is roughly a 4% position in my trading portfolio.  Crude oil and energy stocks faded off the OPEC rumor and subsequent spike earlier this afternoon. They all remain in overall...

23Feb2:13 pmEST

Inversion Issues for Tesla

Tesla Motors continues to operate at the cross-section of an important technical juncture.  On the one hand, the case can be made for a broad, cockeyed topping pattern (light blue lines on daily chart, below). But on the other hand, Tesla is still a super-stock from 2013 with major disruptive abilities in the auto sector. Beyond that, the stock...

23Feb1:06 pmEST

Two Early Afternoon Observations

After selling out of UGAZ on Friday at $3.50, I am looking to see if UNG (the straight-up natural gas ETF, whereas UGAZ is the triple-levered long) can now avoid a gap-fill lower, seen on the 30-minute chart, first below. If so, then a move back over $15.09 on UNG could easily see me go long again.  And regarding crude oil, the USO ETF, second...

23Feb12:10 pmEST

Shots Still Shaping Up Here

The persistent strength in the likes of AAPL as well as biotechnology issues is stemming the tide of this morning's sluggish open in the broad market.  Small and mid-cap biotech continue to be the preferred arena for hot money players, as well as select semiconductor stocks, ARWR CLDX and TSEM are just a few such examples.  We also have recent...

23Feb11:07 amEST

Cracking Pocket Aces

Alcoa, or AA (which is slang for pocket aces in the poker world) was a short setup in my Weekend Video Strategy Session yesterday. While this market has been tough on shorts, AA is breaking down today from a well-defined setup. Specifically, price was leaning down agains that yellow line, the 200-day moving average, too may times in recent...

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