MarketChess

06Aug12:20 pmEST

Vol of Vols

Looking at the updated hourly chart for the Nasdaq, below, the rally today seems rather rudimentary as far as relief bounces go in the context of downtrends (on this timeframe, of course). We are drifting up to the 20-period hourly chart moving average and still making lower highs and lower lows by price over the last few weeks.  However, bulls...

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05Aug10:13 amEST

You Don't Know What This is, Do You?

Seeing as we are in the dog days of summer, where most of Wall Street's "Masters of the Universe" are off in the Hamptons, on Cape Cod, or somewhere along the Mediterranean, not to mention the Olympics taking place in Paris, it is quite noteworthy indeed to see markets dive lower to the degree they did off the open as the VIX surges.  Put...

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02Aug1:30 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/02/24 {Video}

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01Aug11:24 amEST

Swingers

The increasingly wild price swings continue to be the true message of this market of late, as bulls thought they were totally in the clear for an unbridled short squeeze higher after the monstrous snapback rallies in NVDA, semis, and many tech names yesterday on the back of the FOMC, then META earnings last evening.  And while META is still...

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31Jul3:30 pmEST

It May Not Be the Right Cut

Earlier this month I sold out of a long-term short in Treasuries (long TBT, an ETF ultra-short TLT, seen below on the weekly chart; long TBT is basically a bet on higher rates and lower Treasury prices). As I noted with Members, my long-term view is still that the bond market is in serious trouble, but I saw a better entry price coming later...

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30Jul12:21 pmEST

Fighting Your Greatest Opponent

"Your biggest opponent isn't the other guy. It's human nature." - Bob Knight There is a tendency from traders, most likely due to human nature, during earnings season to more or less temporarily forget about a given name after they have reported, especially if there is no dramatic reaction by the stock. However, doing so may come at the...

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29Jul12:30 pmEST

Those Chips Suddenly Aren't Paula Deen Sweet Anymore

As we embark on one of the busiest midsummer weeks you will ever see in markets, between the biggest firms reporting earnings alongside about 40% of the S&P 500 Index's components, plus the FOMC and non-farm payrolls in the heat of an election year and heightened geopolitical tensions, you may have noticed the increasing intraday violence of...

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26Jul2:36 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/26/24 {Video}

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25Jul12:04 pmEST

This is What a High(er) VIX Means

While certainly not at historically elevated extremes, the VIX (or Volatility Index) is higher than the sleepwalking levels it spent most of this spring and summer, heretofore. This morning, NVDA, semis, and most tech at-large opened sizably lower before reversing back to green/flat as I write this.  Bulls are cheering this move as a kind of...

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24Jul12:25 pmEST

We've Got Evidence Now, Pal

A higher low in the VIX; A lower high by the semiconductors (below on the updated daily chart for the SOX Index) as the 50-day moving average for that sector has now been clearly lost.  These are pieces of strong evidence that some type of regime change is underway in equities, as dip-buyers previously feasted with easy on any and all...

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