MarketChess

11Aug2:53 pmEST

Many Converts Await

With President Trump announcing he is casting his net even wider with candidates to become his nominee for next Fed Chair, it only creates an even larger incentive for said candidates to audition via a blatantly dovish view on rates. Put another way, the most dovish candidate has a better chance of winning Trump's nomination than a hawkish one,...

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08Aug3:06 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/08/25 {Video}

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07Aug2:28 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Bubble

Putting to one side the fade in large cap tech today, the perennial lagging sectors like regional banks (KRE ETF) and smaller cap biotech (XBI ETF, below on the daily chart) have not quite lived up to the many calls for a bonafide rotation into the back half of 2025 and beyond.  For a good while now we have been in both in a bifurcated market...

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06Aug10:29 amEST

One Last Trip for Old Times' Sake

It should not come as too much of surprise to see the semiconductor AMD struggle after earnings in the area above $160. After all, gauging the monthly chart, below, we have seen Advanced Micro Devices run into major tops above that level dating back several years now.  As I write this, AMD is leading the SMH semiconductor ETF lower, the former...

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04Aug2:09 pmEST

Big Week for Vegas But Well Off the Strip

In light of recent buzz about the plight of Las Vegas, it seems fitting that DraftKings is set to report earnings this week on Wednesday evening. After all, on top of rising room rates/resort fees in Vegas as well as a multitude of other factors, the rise of legalized online gambling across the country is surely one of several reasons for Las...

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01Aug3:36 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/01/25 {Video}

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31Jul3:28 pmEST

Muddy Tug of War

The ARM earnings disappointment (down 13.7%) has had a surprisingly strong effect on the Nasdaq today, considering all of the hype surrounding both Meta and Microsoft rallying sharply after earnings last evening. As it stands now META is still up more than 11%, MSFT up nearly 4%, yet the QQQ is red as we head into Apple and Amazon earnings this...

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30Jul3:35 pmEST

Weak Fed Leadership Marred by Dissents and Bessents

Today's FOMC decision to hold rates steady was met with two dissents among the voting members, marking the first time in more than thirty years we have seen a double dissent. Fed Chair Jay Powell's constant toeing the line seems to finally be wearing thin with most, as he would rather engage in legalese, "arguments for both sides," in lieu of...

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29Jul10:23 amEST

Whirlpool Out in the Cold Rhymes with Stagflation

The concept of history "rhyming" remains firmly intact even as the S&P and Nasdaq melt up every single (or perhaps because of it), insofar and the comparison to the early-1970s. Specifically, over fifty years ago we had the mighty NIFTY FIFTY market growth leaders melting up and eventually topping out, too, all the while stagflation (slowing...

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28Jul2:47 pmEST

Follow the North Water

"The North Water" refers to a fictional voyage of a whaling ship in the 1850s, which is the setting of Ian McGuire's novel and subsequent BBC/AMC miniseries of the same name. The "north water" specifically refers to the North Water Polynya, an area of open water in the Arctic where whales migrate, making it a crucial hunting ground for whalers...

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