19Dec1:15 pmEST
The Immortal Bull Market
No, I am not referring to equities as the "immortal bull market." Instead, I am referring to the forty-plus year bull run in Treasuries, with rates falling since the early-1980s up until the pandemic. As you might imagine, that length of the bull run in the bond market lulled several generations of investors to sleep, even seasoned market...
18Dec3:42 pmEST
The Great Repricing
Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...
17Dec2:41 pmEST
Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP
Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback. However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...
16Dec12:53 pmEST
Because it is All So Hysterical
In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...
12Dec3:10 pmEST
How Could it Be OK if It's Askew?
I saw on X that @Barchart posted how low the "MOVE" Index has been sinking, which is basically the VIX of the bond market, illustrated below. It would seem there is much ado about nothing, according to the MOVE Index, despite rates pushing higher as Treasuries selloff after both yesterday's inline CPI print, a strong 10-Year auction, and then...
11Dec10:13 amEST
Ready to Go At a Moment's Notice
Natural gas is red-hot this morning, out in front of the commodity complex as the CPI print confirmed what we basically knew anyway: Inflation is reaccelerating into Fed rate cuts. Further, while it is certainly true that uranium and nuclear reactor plays are enticing on the long side, the more imminent, realistic play for AI energy is natural...
09Dec1:55 pmEST
They Couldn't Break the Chiner
We have what looks to be some late-stage bifurcation rotation again today, with the downtrodden China stocks getting a secondary boost off recent lows after their early-October pop. On the first chart, below, of the weekly timeframe for the FXI China country ETF, we can see the bull flag potential uncoiling higher today, with names like BABA JD...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
