19Feb2:31 pmEST

Drifting At Sea

The ETF for the "Magnificent 7" leading mega cap tech stocks, below on the daily timeframe, pretty much sums up the state of things with this market: We have a drifting tape, low in volume and narrow in range. Note how tight the apex of the symmetrical triangle is getting, with the lower highs and higher lows nearly converging.  History says...

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18Feb2:13 pmEST

Housing is Dead; Long Live Housing

Rates continue to remain elevated--Higher for longer, indeed.  While I am still flabbergasted at the Nasdaq and VIX largely ignoring this issue (for now, at least), housing and related stocks have clearly gotten the message. And it may only be starting.  On the NVR daily chart, below, this homebuilder serves as just one of many examples of the...

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14Feb2:59 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/14/25 {Video}

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13Feb1:42 pmEST

Do We Need Taiwan or Not?

Despite some notable weak spots underneath the surface today, such as transports, Microsoft (again), and Amazon, just to name a few, stocks are broadly higher after shrugging off a hot PPI print this morning. A headline crossed earlier that Trump may delay tariffs for another month or two, which seems to have assuaged fears of imminent negative...

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12Feb1:33 pmEST

Denial Ain't Just a River in D.C.

Even with an undeniably red-hot CPI print this morning, plenty of market pundits and players, not to mention central bankers, remain reticent to admit that inflation is actually back on the rise. These folks are sticking to their guns regarding the notion inflation has already "come down significantly," and now we are simply enduing a bumpy...

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11Feb1:22 pmEST

I'd Rather Have Low and Slow Cooking Than Low and Slow Markets

We have another session of generally low volume and generally slow-paced price action. True, Powell gave the first of this two-day Congressional semi-annual testimony. But the CPI inflation print tomorrow morning still seems like it is shaping up as a the key event of the week, especially given Powell's penchant for lawyerly double-speak in...

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10Feb1:28 pmEST

More Tariffs While the Market Spins Its Wheels

News of President Trump saying he will impose a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports has the domestic materials plays mostly higher today. Larger names like AA NUE X are getting attention. But smaller names like Chicago-based Ryerson, below on its daily chart, ought not be overlooked.  Compared to other smaller domestic materials plays like...

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07Feb3:04 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/07/25 {Video}

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06Feb11:58 amEST

Another Bounce Brings Out Bond Bulls...or Zebras?

The Super Bowl this Sunday may very well be between the Eagles and Chiefs, but right now the bond market seems like it is shaping up as a fight between the lions and the zebras .  So, which one is which? Are bond bulls correct that the recent bounce in Treasuries (with rates moving lower, since bond prices move inversely to rates) is the...

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05Feb1:50 pmEST

The Fundamental Things Apply As Time Goes By

Despite AMD GOOGL post-earnings selloffs today we have the likes of NVDA spearheading (watch that 200-day moving average test from the underside) multiple rally attempts in the Nasdaq throughout the session. As it stands now, the Nasdaq is basically flattish-to-slightly-down as we look ahead towards Amazon earnings tomorrow, and then the jobs...

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