An Internal Battle in Medicine

A major part of the market continues to be the multi-year winning biotechnology sector. On the whole, they have turned in a magnificent performance, quickly rising from each shakeout along the way. Headed into year-end, it is tough to see any meaningful downside in the broad market unless the biotechs themselves put in a reversal lower. A major part of this puzzle hinges, of course, on the performance of the large cap biotechs, comprising a large percentage of the IBB, sector ETF. In particular, we can see an internal conflict in the sector today, among large cap biotechs, with the surging BIIB versus the lagging GILD. Gilead, seen on the second daily chart, below, has been one of the undisputed leaders in the space for years. But now it is threatening a technical base breakdown and appears to be more of a viable short than a long setup. On the other hand, Biogen, seen on the first daily chart, is rising to the top end of a multi-quarter range today. While the two stocks could theoretically go their separate ways from here, GILD down and BIIB up, I suspect we should see one of them give us a head-fake and subsequently follow the other one in the same direction. Given the abnormally-steep multi-year bull run in the sector heretofore, my bet is still that a bull trap/false breakout higher is the more likely scenario before a correction.