Daily Archives: April 4, 2024

Showing articles 1 - 6 (6 total)

30Jan3:44 pmEST

Diving Into Super Bowl Weekend; Chess Moves

With the expansion in price range and volatility in recent weeks, combined with the inability of the market to sustain a rally late this week, I have placed bearish bets into Super Bowl weekend. I went long TZA at $12.83 with a stop-loss below $12, betting on a major breakdown in the Russell 2000 Index next week. This is a triple-levered short...

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30Jan2:57 pmEST

Revisiting the Oil Thesis; Chess Moves

I had success shorting major airlines earlier this year under the theory oil would stabilize soon and impact them negatively. In fact, what happened was that oil keep falling, but the airlines fell anyway. Currently, oil is snapping back hard today for a likely bear market short squeeze rally. Major airlines are getting hit, too, even as the...

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30Jan1:09 pmEST

A Relevant and Quality Seasonality Study

Courtesy of  Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap), the above chart illustrates what happens in equites after we see a negative month of January, when it comes after three or more prior years of gains . This is a focused and relevant seasonality study, which is important because it can be very easy to find erroneous, biased, and misguided...

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30Jan12:25 pmEST

Join Us for a Limbo Luau Party

With HA gapping down ferociously today, I still view major airlines as setting up for shorts again. I traded AAL and UAL for wins earlier this year, but I was quick not to overstay my welcome given how resilient  they have been for a while now. Still, the majors, such as AAL DAL UAL, can still be seen as short idea with defined stop-loss above...

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30Jan11:43 amEST

Just Short It; Chess Moves

I went short NKE here at $92.93 with a cover-stop over $97. The position is roughly 4% of my trading capital. I am playing for a daily chart breakdown from the well-defined descending triangle (light blue lines), seen below. I am also playing for the stock's long-term, abnormally steep trend to break. Simply put, Nike has enjoyed an incredible...

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30Jan10:55 amEST

Cold Weakness When There Should Have Been Warmth

Not much has changed with our ongoing analysis of the SPY chart, seen below on a zoomed-out 30-mimute timeframe. Despite the exuberance, cheered bounced we have seen along the way (purple lines) in recent weeks, each rally has simply set up the next leg down. This morning, we are seeing signs of a rollover, once again, denoted by the yellow...

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