The Hunt for Red Bonds in October

The multi-decade bull run in Treasuries is another facet of the Fed decision today, in terms of keying off rates on the 10-year. I still think another move over 3% would signal a major sea change. Recently, bonds now, bonds have been grinding lower since a dramatic spike up and reversal on August 24th, coinciding with the flash down in equities. 

In terms of gauging longer-term changes in character, Simon Property Group, by far the largest holding on the rate-sensitive IYR ETF, of the real estate investment trusts), is a good one to track. The zoomed-out chart, below, shows the makings of either a complex top or a sideways bull consolidation in a multi-year advance. 

I suspect another move below $180 and especially $173 should galvanize the bond vigilantes who have long been waiting in hibernation to pounce on any weakness shown by the seemingly omnipotent Fed.