Up the Road We Go

With so much noise and emotion in a volatility, corrective, even bear market, it is usually worthwhile endeavor to keep things simple and focus on shorter-term timeframes for context.

Thus, we return to the seemingly endless falling channel which the small caps have been working through after an initial gap lower to begin 2016. 

On the updated hourly chart, below, for the IWM ETF, we can plainly see that the small caps have made some minor progress after yesterday's failure by bears for the bottom to fall out.

Instead, we are now up and above the channel, over $100. As long as that stays intact, the presumption is of a counter-trend, relief rally which may last a few days up to a few weeks towards a lower swing high.

First things first, though, and just as with crude oil, which we day-traded for Members on the long side earlier, bulls are going to need a reasonably strong close today to keep the ball rolling back uphill.