It Ain't About Blockbuster Anymore

Over the last few years, Netflix has unquestionably been a dominant force, obliterating Blockbuster, for example. Beyond that, its original programming and international growth have impressed. And, to be sure, the many skeptics who shorted the name all the way up since 2014, if not back from 2012, have been forced to eat heavy doses of humble pie as Netflix became a bonafide market leader and Wall Street momentum darling. 

Nonetheless, this ain't about Blockbuster anymore. NFLX is no longer in the early playoffs rounds, so to speak, but now must contend for a championship; meaning if NFLX is going to avoid a potential head and shoulders top and smash shorts again to make new highs, earnings tonight after the bell for the prominent consumer discretionary name would be as good an opportunity as any. 

On the daily chart, below, NFLX sure does look a lot like the XLY ETF, in terms of both neither yet confirming nor negating the potential top. A move back below $100, and especially $96, would set in motion a move for bears to have a fighting chance into summer to confirm both the rising wedge since winter as well as the major top, all highlighted below. 

Alternative, a move back over $130 would put pressure on bears, once again, for a likely squeeze to new highs as the top gets presumably negated.