Pay Your Dues Before Summer Really Begins

Much like the weather in the northeast today, summer is not quite here yet. 

And when it comes to the global materials and commodity complex, the same may very well be true despite a riveting rally since the winter months. 

Emerging markets, for example, not unlike the energy sector, could easily be in the process of putting in a long-term bear market bottom. 

But some more time may be required before the summer begins with a fresh leg higher. You can see, for example, the amount of time we put in on the "left shoulder." And markets love symmetry. 

On the EEM (ETF for the BRIC countries) weekly chart, below, some more time working through a potential "right shoulder" into Memorial Day makes sense here. And, of course, that assumes the bull case holds water. A wildcard may very well be the U.S. Dollar staging a shocking comeback, which is still a possibility given how obvious the greenback weakness has been of late. 

Either way, miners and most commodities are illustrating some shaking and baking today, keeping Johnny-come-lately longs honest. That process may play out a bit longer and, as long as some important levels hold below, should likely be welcomed by bulls looking for better entry points.