Bull Markets (And Apple) Don't Die of Old Age But They Do Slow Down

Despite yet another triple-digit rally in the Dow off the opening bell, we have some underlying weakness in key parts of the market which continue to weigh on equities. 

As an example, even if Apple's growth leadership days are now dwindling due to the law of large numbers (for argument's sake), we must acknowledge that this is one of the most widely-held names both individually and in terms of ETF exposure. The massive market cap, its household brand name strength, its reputation, and oh-by-the-way Warren Buffett gobbling it up like a chili dog at Dairy Queen, all contribute to how significant of a stock AAPL still is on many levels: Financially, psychologically, and its technical impact due to its weighting in ETFs and some index charts. 

On the AAPL daily chart, updated below, the inability so far to hold a bounce at its 200-day moving average ought to be a cause for concern here for bulls. But, consistent with how this market has acted this autumn, bulls have not yet reached a level of major concern at all, as they seem quite confident indeed everything will work out in the end, as usual. 

But if AAPL continues to struggle at its 200-day, the risk then becomes that a myriad of system-based trading programs trigger selling below that significant reference points--After all, most trend followers will automatically take themselves out of a long once the 200-day is lost. 

In addition, Mr. Buffett is human after all. And since barely anyone is willing to say it, I suppose I will--Father Time always wins. At the age of 88, the notion that he is immune to a late-inning blunder in his career seems a bit too naive. 

Is AAPL done forever as a prominent stock? Not at all. In fact, its sheer size and brand will keep it relevant for a long time. But so was MSFT after 2000.

Above all else, thought, to dismiss the inability of Apple to bounce at its 200-day (where it found impressive footing twice earlier this year) is likely reckless in spite of how confident bulls seem this pullback is mild.